1. Which party (if any) benefits in a presidential election if the economy is strong two years from the election (.5pt)? one month before election day (.5pt)? Why or why not? (1pt)
2. From the Vavreck reading, what is the difference between a “clarifying” campaign and an “insurgent” campaign (1pt)? Under what conditions do candidates choose to run “clarifying” campaigns (1pt)?
3. In 2008, did Obama run a “clarifying” campaign or an “insurgent” campaign- Why (1pt)? In 2012, did Romney run a “clarifying” campaign or an “insurgent” campaign- Why (1pt)?
4. What are the three variables Abramowitz uses in his time for change model (.5)? How does he measure each variable (.5)? How does Nate Silvers FiveThirtyEight model differ from the time for change model (1pt)?
5. According to the Tesler, Sides, and Vavreck article, what factor (besides those identified by Abramowitz and Silver) contributed to Trump’s 2016 electoral college victory (2pt)?
In total, your response to these questions should be around 500 words. You may upload a response as either a Word document or a PDF.
