In Phase One of your work as a consultant for TC Ice Cream, you performed a current trend analysis about a specific division and two different ice cream flavors. For Phase Two, the TC Ice Cream manage

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In Phase One of your work as a consultant for TC Ice Cream, you performed a current trend analysis about a specific division and two different ice cream flavors. For Phase Two, the TC Ice Cream management team has asked you to create a two-page report that summarizes the trends you see and what you predict based on several regressions. The regressions will inform whether you confirm or reject the initial hypothesis that you arrived at in Phase One.

The steps you take in Phase Two will also help with identifying future trends, confirming which option to choose, and determining which attributes TC Ice Cream should be aware of.

It is important to provide your stakeholders with the background of how and why you chose specific ways to identify trends and make predictions. As a consultant, you must be able to articulate this kind of information to people who may not have the background in statistics that you do; after all, you were hired for your expertise. Specifically, you need the ability to explain which regressions were used and why. 

Your detailed goals for this phase of your work are as follows:

  1. Use current data and analyses to identify future trends and attributes that can have an impact on sales.
    • Use the TC Ice Cream Data Set to complete this step.
  2. Perform two linear bivariate regressions and two multiple regressions to provide specific recommendations.
    • Choose key TC Ice Cream attributes out of the following four for regressions: Advertising Expenses, Flavor Rating, Social Media Posts, and Event Promotions. Quantity Sold is a dependent variable.
  3. Use the hypothesis from Milestone One to validate and predict using regressions.

Dependent and independent variables for your analyses should come from the provided data only.

Prompt

Your task is to identify future trends and variables that impact sales. Given monthly production levels and flavor variety, the monthly quantity sold is most optimal between 3,000 and 12,000. Your work will be completed in the Flavor One Bivariate Analysis, Flavor Two Bivariate Analysis, Flavor One Multi. Analysis, Flavor Two Multi. Analysis worksheets in the TC Ice Cream Excel Workbook. You will then use this information to create a predictions and trends report. You will submit both the workbook and a PowerPoint presentation of the report in this milestone.

Reminder:

The division “WEST NORTH CENTRAL” cannot be used for your assignment. Use the division and two flavors you selected in previous modules.

Specifically, you must address the following rubric criteria: 

Excel Workbook. Identify future trends and attributes that impact sales. Use the worksheets specified below to complete your work.  

  1. Perform two bivariate regressions to provide recommendations.
    1. For the first bivariate regression for Flavor One, the dependent variable should be Quantity Sold. Choose an independent variable from one of the remaining attributes (Advertising Expenses, Flavor Rating, Social Media Posts, Event Promotions). Use the Flavor One Bivariate Analysis sheet.
    2. For the second bivariate regression for Flavor Two, the variable should be Quantity Sold. Choose an independent variable from one of the remaining variables (Advertising Expenses, Flavor Rating, Social Media Posts, Event Promotions). Use the Flavor Two Bivariate Analysis sheet.
    3. To provide guidance and analysis to this hypothesis range, select one of the following questions and answer the question for both Flavor One and Flavor Two. You will address this question in your PowerPoint presentation.

In the upcoming year, if TC Ice Cream used the average monthly advertising expenses for the given flavor plus an additional 12%, would the monthly quantity sold fall between 3,000 and 12,000 gallons? Answer this question for Flavor One and Flavor Two separately. 

In the upcoming year, if TC Ice Cream targeted a flavor rating for the given flavor of 8.75 per a given region/division/flavor/month, would the monthly quantity sold fall between 3,000 and 12,000 gallons? Answer this question for both Flavor One and Flavor Two separately.

In the upcoming year, if TC Ice Cream targeted the number of social media posts for the given flavor of ice cream as 15 per a given region/division/flavor/month, would the monthly quantity sold fall between 3,000 and 12,000 gallons? Answer this question for both Flavor One and Flavor Two separately. 

In the upcoming year, if TC Ice Cream targeted the number of sponsored events for the given flavor of ice cream as 135 per a given region/division/flavor/month, would the monthly quantity sold fall between 3,000 and 12,000 gallons? Answer this question for both Flavor One and Flavor Two separately. 

  1. Perform two multivariate regressions to provide recommendations.
    1. For the first multivariate regression, the dependent variable should be Quantity Sold (the column in the data set). Choose two independent variables from one of the remaining attributes (Advertising Expenses, Flavor Rating, Social Media Posts, Event Promotions). Use the Flavor One Multi. Analysis sheet.
    2. For the second multivariate regression, the dependent variable should be Quantity Sold (the column name in the data set). You should choose two independent variables from one of the remaining attributes (Advertising Expenses, Flavor Rating, Social Media Posts, Event Promotions). Use the Flavor Two Multi. Analysis sheet.
    3. To provide guidance and analysis to this hypothesis range, select one of the following questions and answer the question for both Flavor One and Flavor Two. You will address this question in your PowerPoint presentation.
      • In the upcoming year, if TC Ice Cream used the average advertising expenses for the given Flavor plus an additional 12% AND targeted 15 social media posts per a given region/division/flavor/month, would the monthly quantity sold fall between 3,000 and 12,000 gallons? Answer this question for both Flavor One and Flavor Two separately.
      • In the upcoming year, if TC Ice Cream used the average advertising expenses for the given Flavor plus an additional 12% AND targeted a flavor rating of 8.75 per a given region/division/flavor/month, would the monthly quantity sold fall between 3,000 and 12,000 gallons? Answer this question for both Flavor One and Flavor Two separately.
      • In the upcoming year, if TC Ice Cream used the average advertising expenses for the given Flavor plus an additional 12% AND targeted the number of sponsored events for the given flavor of ice cream to 135 for a given region/division/flavor/month, would the monthly quantity sold fall between 3,000 and 12,000 gallons? Answer this question for both Flavor One and Flavor Two separately.
      • In the upcoming year, if TC Ice Cream targeted 15 social media posts AND targeted the number of sponsored events for the given flavor of ice cream to 135 for a given region/division/flavor/month, would the monthly quantity sold fall between 3,000 and 12,000 gallons? Answer this question for both Flavor One and Flavor Two separately.

PowerPoint PresentationUsing the Milestone Two PowerPoint Template, complete the following, including key visualizations and analysis to support your recommendation:

  1. Validate or reject your initial hypothesis based on your analysis of the regressions.
    1. You will also need to qualify in the predictions and trends report what the rationale is behind using that attribute towards regression. Identify the right attribute size (independent variable) that would lead you to a monthly quantity sold range of 3,000–12,000 gallons.
  2. Predictions and Trends Analysis
    1. Section One: Overview
      1. What does your analysis tell you about your initial hypothesis—the option chosen in Phase One? Did you confirm it? Support your reasoning with your analysis results.
      2. Which combination of the attributes seems most appropriate to lead you to the expense range of $500–$2,750?
      3. Which combination of the attributes would seem appropriate to lead you to a monthly quantity sold range of 3,000–12,000 gallons?
    2. Section Two: Findings from Regression Analysis
      1. Briefly describe the key elements for each regression presented in Excel. Cite the regression coefficient, regression line equation, p value, and significance F in your description.
      2. Which of the independent variables are impactful, and why?
    3. Overall, what is your conclusion about the option to be recommended and the key attributes that TC Ice Cream should be alerted to?

What to Submit

  • TC Ice Cream Excel Workbook: Submit the TC Ice Cream Excel Workbook.xlsx. For this assignment, work should be completed in the Flavor One Bivariate Analysis, Flavor Two Bivariate Analysis, Flavor One Multi. Analysis, and Flavor Two Multi. Analysis worksheets. Do not remove any sheets from the workbook.
  • PowerPoint Presentation: Submit a PowerPoint presentation using the Milestone Two PowerPoint Template