5 Assignment: Linear Regression and Time Studies

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Getting Started

Linear regression is one of the most common yet powerful statistical tools because it allows you to make predictions of a dependent variable based upon an independent variable i.

Upon successful completion of this assignment, you will be able to:

  • Develop regression models and predict future values.

Background Information

There have been many pronouncements that have been made regarding the COVID-19 pandemic. This assignment will show you how you can examine the data for yourself, and make your own decisions concerning how well the country is coping with the pandemic.

Instructions

  1. Review the rubric to make sure you understand the criteria for earning your grade.
  2. Read chapters IV, and XIV, in the online textbook. Watch the videos and powerpoints that go with each chapter.
  3. Go to The COVID Tracking Project website and download the data for all states.
  4. Sort the data by states and find the date for your state of residence.
  5. Create a new column AR in the database labeled % positive. The formula to calculate % positive should be = AD1/AP1. Format the cell for percentage. Copy the cell down the column for all dates of your state.
  6. Create a new column AS in the database labeled % tested. From the World Population Review website, determine the population of your state. The formula to calculate % tested should be = AH1/the population of your state. Format the cell for percentage. Copy the cell down the column for all dates of your state.
  7. Using the data, develop a linear regression time series analysis for deaths (column D), % tested, and % positive. Answer the following questions:
    1. What is the null and alternative hypothesis for each variable?
    2. What was the r squared for each variable? What does this mean?
    3. What was the p-value of each test? What does this mean?
    4. For those tests which were significant, use the model to predict the value of the variable seven days after the end of the workshop.
  8. Write a short report (1 to 2 pages for each variable) that includes the results of your analysis. Present the results and discuss the implications of your findings. Include whatever graphs or statistical output you may have generated in answering these questions along with a short explanation of your analysis. What conclusions concerning COVID19 may you draw from your analysis?
  9. When you have completed your assignment, submit a copy to your instructor using the Assignment submission page.
  10. The assignment is due by the end of the workshop.