Module on Assessing Evidence and Evaluating Arguments
Statistical arguments
Science is often confused with the dogmatic listing of unchangeable facts and figures, i.e. psychics are fake.
For example: A link to a comedic portrayal of a scientist taking a FACT gathering approach to science.
However, it would be more accurate to think of science as procedures that have been developed over thousands of years to discover how the natural world works and that avoid mistakes that have been made in the past. It is also important to note that following these procedures does not come naturally to the Human mind.
Why skeptics should not talk down to people. There is really no way to explain odd phenomena without actually doing an clear headed and serious investigation using the best methods available. http://www.pointofinquiry.org/joe_nickell_humanistic_skepticism/ . For an example of what serious investigations look like check out http://www.csicop.org/si/show/ghost-hunting_mistakes_science_and_pseudoscience_in_ghost_investigations.
Theory vs. Evidence
Note that theories are unifying explanations that explain at least part of the way the world works. A good theory will be able to explain more/higher quality evidence than other theories that try to explain the same evidence. Evidence is observations or bits of information that can be used to support/refute theories.
Elaboration likelihood model
This theory explains how to convince people of something.
Central route of Persuasion
This is where you used a direct argument (facts, figures etc.) to convince people of something.
Peripheral route of persuasion
This is where you present your argument in an exciting way or attack the credibility of your opponent etc.
OR
Both have merit http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/patients-can-face-grave-risks-when-doctors-stick-to-the-rules-too-much/?ex_cid=538fb
We Have Been Fooled Before
Scientific skepticism is not simply arrogance and mean spiritedness as portrayed in the TV clip above. Scientists have become skeptical because there is a long history of people being fooled by theories that do not help people because they are not based in reality.
Link to a list of quacks who have fooled people because of humans natural lack of skepticism.
Who believes in conspiracy theories?
Are the people who believe in conspiracy theories mentally ill?
Terror Management Theory
How does thinking about your death change your belief persistence.
http://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2013/12/31/256596253/nothing-focuses-the-mind-like-the-ultimate-deadline-death
EXTRA: Retirement with like minded or different people? http://www.npr.org/2015/02/06/384104228/iggy-children-of-the-dirt
EXTRA: Dating for conspiracy theorists http://www.snopes.com/2016/05/25/conspiracy-theorists-meet-on-new-dating-website/
Replication Crisis
How many studies show the same thing if you try again.
http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2016/01/15/463237871/episode-677-the-experiment-experiment
EXTRA: Here’s some reading that suggests that we might not be too far off track. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/failure-is-moving-science-forward/
The Backfire Effect
Do people’s beliefs change if given more evidence?
http://bigthink.com/think-tank/the-backfire-effect-why-facts-dont-win-arguments
Bad Science or Good Science in Changing our minds?
What does the science of changing minds REALLY say?
http://www.thisamericanlife.org/radio-archives/episode/584/for-your-reconsideration?act=1
